US-China Flights to Increase: International Routes Recovery Update
As European airlines continue to suspend China-Europe routes, a US airline has finally decided to increase flights between China and the United States.
Delta Air Lines announced that it will resume direct flights from Shanghai Pudong (PVG) to Los Angeles (LAX) in June 2025, with three flights per week.
After the resumption of Shanghai-Los Angeles flights, Delta Air Lines will operate 17 direct flights between China and the United States per week, including the current Shanghai-Detroit and Shanghai-Seattle routes.
However, the current number of flights between China and the United States is still far less than before the pandemic, while some countries have already "fully" restored flights to China.
The increase in China-US flights is slower than expected.
Delta Air Lines' increase this time uses the additional flight rights approved by China and the United States in February this year.
The notice at the time showed that airlines from both sides could operate a total of 100 regular passenger flights per week, with 50 from China and 50 from the United States.
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Now, more than half a year has passed, and the six Chinese airlines have already filled the 50 flights per week, while US airlines have not yet used up the quota of 50 flights.
In May of this year, Delta Air Lines increased the Shanghai-Detroit flights from three times a week to daily; United Airlines only resumed the Shanghai direct flight to Los Angeles four times a week at the end of August.
At the end of October, a new flight season will begin, and Delta Air Lines and United Airlines have applied to continue to postpone the resumption of China-US flights that were previously operated before the pandemic. Delta Air Lines' new flight plan will not be able to take off until the next flight season next year.It is worth noting that the U.S. Department of Transportation mentioned in a notice at the end of last year that it hopes to further normalize China-U.S. flights during the summer of the Northern Hemisphere in 2024. The Civil Aviation Administration of China has also clearly stated that it will promote a significant increase in direct China-U.S. flights this year.
However, under the cost pressure of bypassing Russia, the current recovery rate of China-U.S. routes is still less than 30%. Due to the principle of reciprocity in air rights, if U.S. airlines do not increase flights, Chinese airlines cannot continue to add more.
However, according to the reporter's understanding, Delta's new Shanghai-Los Angeles route did not originally need to fly over Russian airspace, so it was not affected by the cost increase after the pandemic bypass. Therefore, the only factor affecting the company's resumption of this route is the forecast of demand.
How is the recovery of international routes going?
In addition to Delta Airlines, many foreign airlines have also announced increased flights to China recently. For example, Kenya Airways announced that it will open direct flights from Nairobi to Beijing; Saudi Arabian Airlines also announced that it will open direct flights from Beijing Daxing International Airport to Dammam on October 28; Ethiopian Airlines just increased the Guangzhou-Addis Ababa route to ten flights per week at the end of September.
The above new routes all come from Africa or the Middle East, which are also areas with higher flight recovery rates at present. According to the flight butler's international route operation situation in September, from January to September this year, the number of routes from West Asia, Central Asia, and Africa has already exceeded that of 2019.
If we look at the total number of international outbound passenger routes of China's civil aviation, it has only recovered to 70.3% of 2019, among which Southeast Asia is still the most dense area in terms of route numbers, but it has decreased by more than 200 compared to 2019, close to halving, and the number of routes in North America (including the United States and Canada) is less than half of 2019.
Many industry insiders pointed out to the reporter that since this year, China's international routes have undergone significant structural changes. Among them, the proportion of passenger flights to "Belt and Road" countries in Africa and the Middle East has reached 73.8%, an increase of 4.4 percentage points compared to before the pandemic. The new routes opened by the three major airlines are also more to non-traditional markets, which is related to the impact of reciprocity restrictions on traditional Europe and America routes, as well as the strengthening of economic and trade exchanges between China and "Belt and Road" countries.
In addition, from January to September this year, there were 67 cities in China operating international flights, which is also 13 less than in 2019. The suspended cities are mostly second-tier and below, and the involved international routes are all Southeast Asia and East Asia routes.
Compared with 2019, this year's international flights are more concentrated in first-tier cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen), with the flight share proportion increasing from 54.4% in 2019 to 59.6%, an increase of 5.1 percentage points, and the market share has further increased to nearly 60%, while other levels of cities have declined to varying degrees, and international flights are gathering towards first-tier cities.The Civil Aviation Administration director mentioned at the semi-annual work conference that in the second half of the year, efforts should continue to increase the development of emerging markets, especially those involved in the "Belt and Road" initiative. There should be an improvement in the efficiency of existing third and fourth freedom rights and encouragement for airlines to make good use of the fifth freedom rights.
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