• News
• 2024-08-24

SEMI Forecasts 20% Global Semiconductor Market Growth; China's Equipment Spending Reaches Record High

After going through a destocking cycle, the global semiconductor market has shown a general warming trend this year.

"The global semiconductor market is expected to achieve a growth of 15% to 20% this year, with a market size reaching $600 billion," said Ju Long, Global Vice President of the International Semiconductor Organization SEMI and President of China, at a media event held on October 11. Represented by the huge computing power demand stimulated by AI (Artificial Intelligence) and big data, the development of emerging industries such as AI and related applications, new energy vehicles, and advanced packaging will promote the global semiconductor industry to achieve a trillion dollars around 2030.

According to data released by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), the cumulative sales of the global semiconductor industry in the second quarter of 2024 reached $149.9 billion, a sequential increase of 6.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 18.3%.

Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in the first eight months of this year, China's integrated circuit export value reached 736.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%; the export quantity was 193.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. Integrated circuits have become an important category of China's export products, with the export scale exceeding that of automobiles.

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From the supply side, Ju Long pointed out that due to the comprehensive consideration of factors such as demand growth and supply chain security, the investment in the global semiconductor industry has shown an increasing trend in recent years, whether it is investment in equipment or investment in factory construction infrastructure is increasing; whether it is China, the United States, or Japan, Southeast Asia, and India, all are increasing their layout. In September this year, SEMI held SEMICON India for the first time in India, which also reflects the changing trend of the global semiconductor manufacturing pattern.

During the period from 2022 to 2026, it is expected that 109 new wafer factories will be put into operation worldwide. The SEMI report predicts that from 2025 to 2027, the global 300mm wafer factory equipment expenditure is expected to reach a record $400 billion.

In this global investment wave, the performance of Mainland China is particularly prominent. China's expenditure on semiconductor manufacturing equipment continued to grow against the trend in 2023, becoming the only region that continued to increase year-on-year in the first half of this year, and also maintaining the position of the world's largest semiconductor equipment market.

"From 2022 to 2026, there will be 109 new wafer factories added worldwide, more than 70 of which are in Mainland China," said Ju Long. Affected by the cycle, the global semiconductor equipment sales in 2023 were $105.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, while the semiconductor equipment in the Mainland China region increased by 28.3% year-on-year. In the first half of 2024, China purchased chip manufacturing equipment worth $25 billion, exceeding the total of South Korea, China Taiwan, and the United States, setting a historical record.

According to SEMI's forecast, the global semiconductor equipment sales in 2024 are expected to increase by 3.4% year-on-year to $109 billion. China's investment in semiconductor equipment will continue to be strong, and the investment in chip equipment will account for 32% of the global share. It is expected that by 2027, China will maintain its position as the world's first in 300mm equipment expenditure, and will invest more than $100 billion in the next three years.

Both the recovery of global demand and the investment in equipment capacity have made the semiconductor market show extremely high heat. As the world's largest annual semiconductor event, SEMICON China has also become a window to observe the current status of industry development."The scale of this year's SEMICON China is larger than ever before, with an audience reaching a record-breaking 160,000 people," revealed Ju Long. Under the circumstances of "one seat hard to find," the exhibition in 2025 will expand by adding an exhibition hall on the original area basis, and the number of companies that have signed up to exhibit has already exceeded this year's, with the number of on-site visitors expected to set a new record.

Faced with the strong demand of the Chinese market and the "heat" of semiconductor investment, SEMI China will also hold the "2024 SEMI Greater Bay Area Industry Summit" for the first time in Guangzhou on November 13 this year, focusing on themes such as industry strategy, flat panel display, smart electric vehicle chips, green factory affairs, advanced testing, and advanced packaging, to strengthen the exchange and cooperation between the domestic and international semiconductor industries.

Ju Long believes that with the continuous investment in semiconductor equipment in mainland China and the rapid development of the application market, the gap between China and foreign countries in the fields of semiconductor equipment and design is narrowing, while the gap in advanced manufacturing is still widening. It is expected that mainland China's investment in semiconductor equipment will gradually decrease from a peak of $45 billion in 2024 to $31 billion in 2027.

In his view, the global semiconductor industry, including China, still faces tough challenges, including the reorganization of the global supply chain, sustainable development, and talent shortage. Among them, talent is the most critical element for companies to succeed and is also the foundation of technological innovation and the continuous development of the industry.

According to Ju Long's observation, in recent years, SEMICON China has attracted a large proportion of young people on site, coupled with the advantage of China's huge market, all of which will provide resilience for the development of China's semiconductor industry.