ECB Expected to Cut Rates Again; Netflix Leads Tech Earnings
Last week, the international market underwent dramatic changes, with the Middle East situation remaining tense, and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealing internal divisions.
In terms of the market, the US stock market continued its upward trend, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 1.21% for the week, the Nasdaq Composite increasing by 1.13%, and the S&P 500 Index increasing by 1.11%. European stock indices showed mixed performances, with the UK's FTSE 100 index falling by 0.33% for the week, Germany's DAX 30 index rising by 1.32%, and France's CAC 40 index rising by 0.48%.
This week offers many highlights, with the US monthly retail sales rate testing the resilience of the economy, and the European Central Bank expected to cut interest rates for the second consecutive time. The US earnings season enters its second week, and in addition to the financial sector, Netflix, as one of the first star technology stocks to report earnings, is attracting attention. Several countries will announce significant price indicators. Among them, Canada's inflation data is crucial for policy decisions in two weeks, and the market has already anticipated a 25 basis point rate cut. New Zealand's third-quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be announced on the 16th, with the country's central bank having just cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and it is expected that borrowing costs will be further reduced in November. After the latest remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the importance of Japan's CPI data has been somewhat reduced, and outsiders hope to find signs of Japan's economy maintaining positive momentum through machinery orders and trade data, which could become a factor influencing interest rate hikes.
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The US monthly retail sales rate may accelerate
As recent US economic indicators have strengthened, leading investors to reduce their previous aggressive rate cut expectations. The outside world continues to focus on the upcoming data, weighing the direction of future policy paths. This week's September retail sales rate will be the main highlight. A report that is stronger than expected may not be well received by the market, as it would further suppress bets on rate cuts. The latest institutional forecasts show that last month's retail sales rate increased by 0.3% month-on-month, better than the 0.1% in August, and consumer spending vitality will support a soft landing for the US economy.
Next week, manufacturing indicators from the New York Fed and the Philadelphia Fed will be released, with the industry accounting for 12% of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and various regions in the US have recently faced continuous contraction pressures. Other data worth paying attention to include September industrial output, building permits, and new housing starts.
The US earnings season has kicked off. Streaming giant Netflix will be among the first large technology companies to report earnings. At the same time, the performance of companies including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth, TSMC, and American Express is also worth paying attention to.
Crude oil and gold
International oil prices rose for the second consecutive week, with investors weighing the risks that could threaten the flow of crude oil in the region after the escalation of the situation between Israel and Lebanon. WTI crude oil near-month contracts rose by 1.59% for the week, closing at $75.56 per barrel, and Brent crude oil near-month contracts rose by 1.27%, closing at $79.04 per barrel.
Rebecca Babin, Senior Energy Trader at CIBC Private Wealth, said that the market has been quite volatile in the past week, with attention focused on news about Israel potentially targeting Iran's energy infrastructure and the follow-up impact of China's stimulus measures.差价合约和点差交易经纪商City Index的市场分析师Fawad Razaqzada表示：“可以理解的是，交易员不希望在进入长周末时被抓到对石油进行空头押注。以色列打击伊朗的可能性会使下周亚洲开盘时油价波动风险更大。”
国际金价周线五连阳，纽约商品交易所10月交割的COMEX黄金期货周涨0.45%，报2657.40美元/盎司。
美国通胀数据巩固了今年降息前景，将美元压制在近期高点以下，中东地缘政治紧张局势引发的避险需求也提振了黄金。贵金属分析机构itco metals的高级市场分析师Jim Wyckoff表示：“工业品出厂价格指数（PPI）对贵金属市场看涨者有利，表明美联储今年仍有望降息25个基点。”
期货机构RJO Futures的高级市场策略师Daniel Pavilonis表示：“经济仍然相对强劲，美联储仍然处于一个复杂环境中，他们正在考虑降息，因为一些行业已经大幅放缓，如房地产。由于地缘政治紧张局势、通胀担忧和选举的不确定性，预计到2025年黄金价格将达到3000美元。”
欧洲央行料降息
欧洲央行本周将召开议息会议，普遍预计将降息25个基点，这将标志着继9月份之后的连续行动。最近疲软的欧元区活动数据和整体通胀率，增加了投资者对本月政策进一步宽松信心。
投资者还将关注未来利率路径的任何线索，欧央行行长拉加德的新闻发布会无疑是焦点。不过汇丰银行经济学家在一份报告中表示：“我们预计，此后对利率变动的指引有限。”该行预测，接下来到明年4月之前的每次会议上都将降息25个基点，直到存款利率降至2.25%。
未来一周欧元区主要数据包括15日的欧洲央行的银行贷款调查和欧元区工业生产月率，而欧盟峰会定于17~18日举行。此外法国和西班牙9月份通胀终值以及欧元区、德国的ZEW情绪指数也将公布。
9月份PMI调查显示，英国私营部门的价格压力降至42个月低点，表明随着油价同比降至负值，整体和核心CPI都有所下降。英国央行行长贝利本月初曾表示，如果数据继续表明通胀有所进展，他们可能需要在降息方面更加积极。
8月份英国的就业报告和9月份的零售额即将公布，就业薪资指标受到更多关注。根据英国隔夜指数掉期（OIS）的数据，投资者认为11月7日降息25个基点的可能性高达75%，12月再次降息的可能性约为60%。
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